Ben Gottesman wrote a fascinating post on The Death of the D-SLR this month on Gearlog. Since it has been 7 years since I wrote my "Beyond Point and Shoot" article for Ben when he was the editor of PC Magazine I thought it was timely to reflect on how far we've come and provide my perspective on Ben's thoughts about the future of the consumer D-SLR....Ben's thesis is that most consumers want something simple and small. He backs that up with stats showing that the initial surge in film SLR growth quickly subsided after the film point and shoot replaced the venerable box camera. His prediction is that large sensor non-interchangeable lens cameras like the Sigma DP1 will be the way of the future for consumers who want performance once they include zoom lenses. He correctly points out that the larger sensor size will provide the image quality people are looking for and the lack of a mirror will allow the camera to be smaller than a D-SLR. I'm not as sanguine about his prediction that the LCD viewfinder will be an adequate replacement for a true optical viewfinder. However with some clever electronics internal electronic viewfinders may work out well for those who want the improved stability and performance of holding the camera up to their forehead.
Another important element that I don't think Ben spends enough time on is speed. Today's big cameras are big because they are packed with expensive electroics. Not everyone needs 10 frames per second, but everyone wants the camera to take a picture when they press the shutter. Especially those taking photos of pets and children--like most consumers. Without question the single biggest reason I hear for "point and shooters" to go get a D-SLR is the need for speed. Moore's law helps us project that over time those electronics will get smaller and cheaper, but until they do just slapping a nice lens on a smaller body won't be nearly as convincing.
And speaking of nice lenses, fast zoom lenses are still big and expensive--and heavy. Fancy optics and DX size sensors are helping a little, but even top of the line "travel zooms" like the Nikon 18-200 are large enough that providing that level of quality on a small camera will just mean the camera is dwarfed by the lens. And of course once you buy an all in one camera you're stuck with its lens for the life of a camera. So sure the "ZLR" is being reborn a decade later in a leaner, meaner and more effective set of products, but to the extent that they address image quality through a larger sensor they increase the size of the needed lens and therefore the size and weight of the camera.
Of course these are mostly quibbles. I do agree with Ben that the huge boom we have seen in consumer D-SLR sales is not a permanent gravy train for Nikon and Canon (and now Sony)--they all make far more on the sale of a D-SLR than a point and shoot--but I don't think the answer is as simple as bolting a zoom onto the DP1 or another similar camera. Ben predicts that will happen in mid-2010. I suspect he is right but I think those cameras will still be a bit of a curiousity until speed and lens quality catch up with the sensor itself and make them truly the equal of future consumer D-SLRs but in a smaller, lighter package.
Speaking of smaller there is one other factor that is not discussed nearly enough. Unlike a film point and shoot which had about three things to set, digital cameras have dozens. The result is that large digital cameras are covered in buttons. As inscrutable as these may seem to a beginner, they are far easier to navigate than a camera where all those same functions are hidden away in menus. So smaller cameras are going to have to innovate in their control systems. Already the low end D-SLRs suffer because frequently used options like ISO and White Balance have been squirreled away instead of being obvious. Touch screens are a start but it will take more than that
Let us hear from you about your thoughts on the future of the D-SLR, consumer or otherwise. You can reply to this post or join us in our forums on nikondigital.org. --David Cardinal